Fantasy football is a hard game to predict when you have consistent players without busts. The following players look like virtual locks to frustrate owners. But keep in mind that busts, aka fantasy letdowns, is not only a matter of where you drafted them, but and what players were still on the board.


peyton-manning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QB Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Despite his age, at 38 years old Peyton Manning still put up great fantasy numbers last year as he finished a top 3 QB in most leagues, yet his last five games this past season were far from vintage Peyton. During that time Peyton threw for 1,169 yards, five touchdowns and six interceptions while having a QB rating of 81.2. I doubt Manning will be that average this season, but he’s a year older now and lost All-Pro left tackle Ryan Clady, so this gives reason for alarm. I still think Manning should be taken within the first four rounds but owners would be wise to not follow last year’s ADP of six. New Broncos coach Gary Kubiak’s offense usually requires close center snaps, not the standard shotgun formations that Manning has played within most of his career. Manning is a great QB but don’t bite on his top 30 value.

demarco-murray

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RB DeMarco Murray, Philadelphia Eagles

People are probably going to wonder how the top RB in football last year is on this list. After this past season Dallas shocked everyone by not re-signing him, allowing their NFC rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, snag him. In short he’s going to battle several things that make a repeat performance of 1,845 yards and 13 touchdowns unobtainable. The Eagles offensive line was solid but, frankly, it pales in comparison to Dallas, who somehow improved even more with the singing of rookie La’el Collins. Dallas has unquestionably the best offensive line in football to the point that the #2 offensive lineman group isn’t close.  Murray carried the ball 392 times last season. Statistically speaking, most running backs lose up to 25% of their fantasy production the following season! Tristan H. Cockcroft wrote extensively about this. Lastly, Ryan Mathews will definitely poach some carries of Murray this season. Eagles head coach Chip Kelly will undoubtedly will use Mathews, which will again limit Murray’s production. Knowing all this makes Murray’s 1st round projection too high for my taste.

 

jeremy-maclin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WR Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs

Maclin leaves the Philadelphia Eagles after a tremendous bounce back year of 1,318 yards and ten touchdowns. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot to like about the situation that Maclin is going into as he’s playing for his old coach Andy Reid, teammates and premier running back Jamaal Charles, but let’s not forget he still has Alex Smith throwing to him. Fans of Smith will say that he’s a game manager who has never had a consistent wide receiver to throw to. Last year Smith did miss quite a bit of receivers down the field every game. Is he a horrible QB? No. Will he more than likely reduce Maclin’s fantasy numbers? I would say the numbers and history would point to yes more than no.

 

jimmy-graham

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TE Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks

Shockingly, the Saints traded one of the NFL’s most dominant Tight Ends to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason. Injuries have slowed Graham down but make no mistake — when healthy he’s a top 3 tight end every year. Russell Wilson is a fine QB in the NFL but in fantasy football he’s not nearly as impactful. Some of that has to do with the fact the Seahawks were last in pass attempts.  Combine that with Seahawks being a run first team, and you have all the makings of decline in fantasy numbers for Graham.

 

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DST New England Patriots

Last year New England was a popular pick in most fantasy leagues with an ADP of 124. But the top 10 unit has suffered loses via free agency. Akeem Ayers, Brandon Browner, Darrelle Revis and Vince Wilfork have moved on. The only proven defensive free agent is Jabaal Sheard but he isn’t a shoe in to make an impact.  The news has gotten even worse with Brandon Spikes getting cut by the team after a suspicious car accident. This doesn’t look like a Super bowl caliber defensive team, but then again, the Patriots do have a history of development that could pan out nicely. I just don’t see it happening this year.

 

shaun-suisham

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

K Shaun Suisham

With the NFL’s rule change of moving the extra points kick attempts 13 yards farther, this change may not affect the upper echelon kickers, but guys like Suisham, who have had power and accuracy issues, will be affected. The PAT will now be a 33-yard field goal, which statistically eliminates the 100% conversion rates many kicker had.

Agree or disagree? Hit up the comments and let me know.